Above-normal temperatures likely to hit wheat crop

India’s wheat production is likely to be negatively impacted by above-normal temperatures expected from March to May 2025, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast. The predicted heat waves in March could hinder grain formation, resulting in lower yields. This comes amid four consecutive years of declining wheat stocks and rising wheat price inflation.

India’s wheat crop faces risks from anticipated above-normal temperatures from March to May, crucial months for grain formation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted increased heat waves, which could impact wheat production. Being a winter crop, wheat is highly sensitive to heat and is cultivated only once a year. It remains a staple food for nearly half of the country’s population.

Above-normal heat-wave days are expected over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern parts of Karnataka during March to May 2025

Ajay Goyal, chairman, Wheat Products Promotion Society (WPPS) said, “The impact of heat will be felt more in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh where the wheat kernels will be entering the milking stage when the grain starts expanding in size.”

Wheat inflation has remained high for the past four years due to adverse weather, and production has consistently declined. The government’s wheat stocks have reduced, limiting price control measures and exacerbating food inflation concerns.  (The Agriculture Ministry has estimated wheat production at 113.29 million tonnes (MT) for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June), while the forecast for 2024-25 is expected to be released soon.)

After reaching a record procurement of 43.3 million tonnes in 2021-22, wheat procurement dropped to 18.8 million tonnes in 2022-23 due to extreme heat. It recovered to 26.2 million tonnes in 2023-24 and slightly increased to 26.6 million tonnes in 2024-25, though still below the target of 30-32 million tonnes. For the upcoming procurement season starting in April, the government has set a target of 31 million tonnes, but actual procurement will depend on production and market prices.

The adoption of heat-resistant wheat seeds has likely increased this year, though data on the coverage area is unavailable. Additionally, snowfall in northern Himalayan states remains a key factor to monitor for its potential impact on the wheat crop.