GenAI smartphones set to transform market by 2028

A report forecasts that generative AI smartphones will exceed 730 million units shipped by 2028, with a shipment share growing from 19% this year to 54%. Samsung and Apple are expected to dominate over 75% of the market, leveraging their premium positioning. The semiconductor sector is projected to reach US $ 339 billion, driven by on-device GenAI adoption.

The shipment of generative AI (GenAI) smartphones is projected to exceed 730 million units by 2028, according to a new report. This year, the shipment share of GenAI smartphones is expected to reach 19%, and by 2028, it is anticipated to grow to 54%, as stated by Counterpoint Research. This growth represents more than three times the projected levels for 2024.

In 2023, Samsung and Apple are poised to dominate over 75% of the global GenAI smartphone market, largely due to their strong presence in developed markets and their leadership in the premium segment. “Both brands are leveraging their premium positioning to capture early adopters, particularly in developed regions where high disposable income and interest in new technologies drive demand for top-tier smartphones,” the report elaborated.

In the short term, GenAI is expected to lead in the premium smartphone category, while in the medium term, it is projected to expand into mid-range devices. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, reaching US $ 339 billion by 2030, largely driven by the adoption of on-device GenAI technology. By 2030, GenAI is expected to account for 45% of semiconductor costs within the bill of materials (BoM).

Key contributors to the semiconductor costs in smartphones include processors, memory, connectivity, power, sensors, and audio, with GenAI having the most impact on processors, followed by memory, sensors, and audio. “The emergence of GenAI is reshaping the smartphone industry drastically, shifting focus from hardware such as bigger screens, faster processors, and more cameras to delivering a more intelligent, adaptive and personalized user experience,” the report highlighted.

The report suggests that competition among smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will intensify, transitioning from a focus on specifications to delivering genuine personalization. “The key for OEM differentiation will lie in the implementation of AI, and we are already starting to see this evolution of AI use cases,” it noted, citing enhanced imaging, translation features, improved app experiences, content recommendations, and personalized content creation.