FY25 FMCG shift: Bigger baskets, rural driving growth

 

Indian FMCG trends in FY25 reveal a deeper shift beneath the surface of steady shopping patterns. While households maintained an average of 156 grocery trips, Kantar reports a marked increase in both basket size and value, highlighting a growing preference for larger and more premium packs. This evolving consumption underscores the dual realities of cautious consumer sentiment manifested in conservative trip frequencies and growing confidence, evidenced by heavier baskets and strategic brand choices.

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A closer look at brand and regional performance reveals a clear divide. Unbranded products grew 6.1%, outpacing mainstream branded firms whose volumes increased around 3.6–3.9% . This indicates that many consumers especially in urban areas are opting for value options to cope with inflation and flat incomes.

Rural India continues to provide the backbone for FMCG growth. As per Kantar, rural demand remains robust, while urban markets face pressure from higher costs and low wage gains. Sources like NielsenIQ and other analysts confirm that rural volume grew faster than urban, often by a large margin, driven by improved farm income, favorable monsoons, and expanding rural distribution networks.

Branded firms such as Hindustan Unilever (+2%), Godrej (+4%), Tata Consumer (+6%), and Marico (+7%) showed modest growth in Q4 FY25. Meanwhile, smaller and regional companies recorded nearly 18% value growth, leveraging their lower cost base and rural reach . D2C and niche brands outside typical data ecosystems are also showing resilience, especially in targeted urban and premium segments.

Wider Context & Market Implications

A more detailed look reveals several layered nuances:

• Shrinkflation trends: Many brands are introducing smaller packs at ₹5–₹20 price points, which are gaining traction. This strategy supports entry-level consumption even as prices inch up .

• Premiumization persists: Despite financial stress, certain categories like bottled beverages, fabric softeners, personal care, and ready-to-eat foods continue to see heightened demand. Consumers are upgrading selectively, especially in urban markets

• Urban slowdown and strategic responses: Colgate-Palmolive highlighted a 2% drop in urban revenue, attributing it to financial stress faced by over two-thirds of urban consumers. Still, the company remains optimistic due to rural strength and digital marketing integration

Looking ahead, industry players and analysts forecast a gradual recovery across urban India supported by softening inflation, better monsoon prospects, and possible tax reversals. Rural India is expected to continue fueling FMCG growth. Experts from Kantar, NielsenIQ, and economic research groups anticipate moderate gains for urban markets in the second half of FY26, while smaller brands will remain strong drivers in both markets

FY25 has shown that how consumers shop is changing: trip patterns are unchanged, but baskets are bigger—stoking a cautious optimism in a difficult macroeconomic environment. While FMCG volumes have slowed overall, they remain buoyed by rural demand and lower-priced alternatives.

The FMCG sector is bifurcating: urban consumers are cautious and price-conscious, turning to shrinkflated packs, unbranded items, and selective premium picks; rural India continues to exhibit strong growth, helping smaller and regional brands outperform.

With inflation likely to ease and the rural economy staying strong, the coming months should see a steady recovery. FMCG players that can balance affordability with value especially in entry-level and rural segments will be best positioned to capture that upside.