India’s online retail to hit 17% of total sales by 2030

India’s e-commerce market is on track for rapid expansion, with its share of total retail sales projected to increase from 7–9% in FY 2023 to 15–17% by 2030, according to a recent McKinsey & Company report. With over 850 million internet users but only 20–25% currently shopping online, the market holds vast untapped potential.

Growth is being driven by quick commerce, social commerce, rising digital adoption, and expanding service offerings. Smaller cities, with faster income growth, and emerging segments like B2B commerce and building materials are also fuelling this shift. Government initiatives like ONDC and GeM are enhancing digital inclusion, positioning India to become a global hub for scalable e-commerce innovation.

India’s e-commerce sector is poised for substantial growth in the coming years, according to a recent report by McKinsey & Company. Despite having over 850 million internet users, only about 20–25% of them currently shop online—significantly lower than in mature markets like the US and China, where over 85% of internet users make online purchases. This suggests massive untapped potential in the Indian market.

The report highlights that India has witnessed a sharp increase in e-commerce activity in recent years. The country is not only rapidly catching up as an online shopping adopter but is also emerging as an innovator. This is especially evident in the rise of quick commerce platforms, which promise delivery within minutes, transforming consumer expectations and retail dynamics.

However, e-commerce still represents only 7–9% of India’s total retail sales as of FY 2023. This figure is projected to grow significantly, reaching 15–17% by 2030. This anticipated expansion reflects a major shift in consumer behavior and retail infrastructure.

One of the most notable trends is the emergence of new business models. Quick commerce and social commerce already constitute over 15% of the current e-commerce market. Their combined share is expected to grow to more than 25% by 2030, indicating strong consumer adoption and market evolution.

E-commerce companies are also diversifying into new service categories. Beyond physical products, platforms are now offering instant bookings for domestic services, professional assistance, and even healthcare support. This broadening of scope illustrates the industry’s ongoing transformation. However, the report emphasized that there remains significant room for further expansion.

India’s next wave of e-commerce growth is expected to be driven by two key trends: the diversification into new areas like B2B commerce and building materials, and rising consumption in tier-two and tier-three cities. These smaller cities are witnessing faster income growth than larger metros, with tier-two cities seeing an 18% increase in average monthly income between 2023 and 2024—outperforming tier-one cities. 

Meanwhile, cross-border e-commerce is broadening global market access for Indian businesses. The growing digitisation of procurement by both government and private sectors is creating fresh opportunities for B2B platforms like the Government e-Marketplace (GeM). Additionally, initiatives like the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) are accelerating digital inclusion by expanding seller access and promoting adoption across both consumer and enterprise markets, according to the report.

The report concluded that India’s e-commerce industry is set to go beyond simply challenging traditional retail—it is on track to transform the broader retail landscape. Innovations in last-mile delivery, logistics, and digital infrastructure are creating a more connected and streamlined retail environment. This transformation is not just about increasing consumer sales; it is also unlocking new opportunities for local entrepreneurs, regional businesses, and digital-first infrastructure ventures. As competition intensifies between global players and domestic start-ups, India is well positioned to narrow the gap with established e-commerce markets. Over the next five years, it may also emerge as an exporter of innovative, scalable retail solutions.