India’s seafood sector is facing one of its most jarring disruptions in years. A sudden spike in US tariffs has sent India’s marine export ecosystem—long built on predictable demand and steady margins—into a period of deep uncertainty. From shrimp farms along the eastern coast to processing lines feeding global supply chains, the tremors are unmistakable. As exporters renegotiate contracts, farmers watch prices slide, and competitors circle the US market, India’s marine industry finds itself at a critical strategic crossroads.
India’s marine export story was once defined by steady growth and global trust and now sits at a strategic inflection point. In August 2025, the United States, India’s largest seafood buyer, imposed a steep tariff hike on shrimp imports, raising effective duties from 8.26% to 58.26% through countervailing and anti-dumping components. Driven by geopolitical tensions and broader trade recalibrations, the move has sent shockwaves through India’s US$ 7.2 billion marine export ecosystem.
Shrimp, which accounts for over 66% of India’s marine export value, has taken the hardest hit. A joint policy brief by Kotak Karma and ICRIER notes that the tariff hike has already caused an 8–10% drop in farm-gate prices, squeezing margins for farmers operating in capital-intensive aquaculture systems. With 48% of India’s shrimp exports previously bound for the US, this disruption has laid bare a long-standing strategic vulnerability: the sector’s heavy dependence on a single market.
[Table 1: Major Marine Export Zones in India, Source: MPEDA, MoFPI, State Fisheries Departments]
The impact is already visible across the value chain. Exporters report deferred shipments, renegotiated contracts, and mounting inventory costs. Coastal states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—home to dense clusters of shrimp farms and processing units are experiencing liquidity stress and rising employment concerns. The Ministry of Commerce, in a briefing to the Public Accounts Committee, has acknowledged that the tariff escalation has placed India at a clear disadvantage, particularly against competitors like Vietnam and Ecuador.
The severity of the disruption is evident:• Exporters now face a seven-fold increase in duty burden for shrimp entering the US.• India’s price competitiveness has eroded sharply, especially vis-à-vis Vietnam and Ecuador.• Farm-gate prices have fallen 8–10%, triggering distress across major aquaculture zones.
To counterbalance the tariff shock from the US, India must accelerate its diversification strategy across both emerging and premium markets. The European Union—particularly Germany and the Netherlands—offers high-value retail channels with a strong focus on sustainability and traceability, areas where India’s certified seafood units can compete effectively. Japan and South Korea present lucrative prospects for premium seafood, supported by tech-enabled traceability systems and a consumer base that prioritizes responsibly sourced products. Russia and the EFTA bloc, including Switzerland and Norway, provide tariff-free access under proposed FTAs, making them attractive destinations for volume-led expansion. Meanwhile, Africa’s rising middle class in countries such as Kenya and Nigeria offers a low-competition landscape suited to affordable seafood formats. Latin America, especially Chile and Brazil, remains largely untapped but holds significant bilateral potential for processed and frozen products. Together, these markets—if strategically cultivated—can help India reduce its heavy dependence on the US and build a more resilient, multi-polar seafood export architecture.
Table: Diversification Targets – Beyond the US
But diversification on the demand side must move in tandem with strengthening the supply base. India already has several key schemes designed to support the marine export ecosystem—PMMSY for cold-chain networks and landing centers, TMA to ease freight costs, AIF to expand storage and logistics infrastructure, EPCG for modernizing processing machinery, and MPEDA subsidies to bolster certification and market outreach. The challenge now is not designing new programs but accelerating execution. Faster approvals, targeted relief for stressed aquaculture clusters, expanded reefer capacity, and stepped-up investments in traceability and sustainability can collectively help restore the sector’s momentum.
The tariff shock has, in many ways, forced a moment of reckoning. It has exposed India’s structural dependence on a single market, but it has also created a window for strategic renewal. If India seizes this moment to rebalance markets, upgrade infrastructure, and build resilience across its value chain, the seafood sector can emerge not weakened, but more adaptive and globally competitive.
What happens next will shape the industry’s trajectory for years to come. But one thing is clear: the inflection point has arrived, and the future of India’s marine exports will depend on the speed and clarity with which the sector responds.
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