Early monsoon spurs optimism for agriculture and rainfall across India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. The monsoon has advanced into parts of southern and northeastern India, with heavy rainfall expected along the west coast. Favorable conditions are likely to boost kharif sowing, especially in southern and central regions. With IMD forecasting above-normal rainfall, India aims for increased crop acreage and yields, targeting a record 354.64 million tonnes of foodgrain production for the 2025–26 crop year.

Following an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and other regions of southern India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated on Sunday (May 25) that conditions are favourable for its further progression into parts of Maharashtra, additional areas of southern India, and the northeastern states.

The IMD reported that the monsoon has already reached parts of Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, and the northeastern states of Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. On Saturday, the monsoon had extended into the entire Lakshadweep region, Kerala, Maharashtra, several parts of Karnataka, the remaining areas of the Maldives and Comorin region, much of Tamil Nadu, and parts of Mizoram

Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall along the west coast—including Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra, and Goa—over the next seven days. Coastal and ghat areas of Karnataka are likely to experience intense rainfall through May 27, while the ghat regions of Tamil Nadu are expected to receive heavy rain on May 25–26 due to prevailing weather conditions.

Early onset of the monsoon over Kerala

The IMD officially declared the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on Saturday, which was eight days earlier than the usual date of June 1. This marks the earliest onset since 2009, when the monsoon arrived on May 23. The earliest recorded onset this century occurred on May 18, 2004. 

Previously, the IMD had forecasted the monsoon to hit the Kerala coast around May 27, with a possible deviation of ±4 days. 

However, Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, cautioned that a significant inflow of dry air from Pakistan and Afghanistan toward the Arabian Sea and India at the end of May could potentially hinder the monsoon’s progress between May 27 and June 5.

The monsoon’s early spread into most parts of Tamil Nadu and parts of Karnataka on the very first day of its onset is significant, though not unusual. It indicates the potential for rapid advancement in the coming days. Under normal circumstances, the monsoon begins over Kerala in early June, gradually covering the entire country by July and starting its withdrawal from northern India around mid-September.

Above-normal rainfall to boost agricultural output

The early onset of the monsoon and its continued advancement are expected to facilitate an early start to kharif (summer) crop sowing across the country, particularly in southern and central India. 

Given the IMD’s forecast of ‘above normal’ rainfall across most regions, this could lead to greater sowing area and higher yields for major summer crops like paddy, pulses, maize, and coarse cereals. The kharif sowing season, which begins with the arrival of monsoon rains, contributes to around 60% of India’s total crop production. These rains are also crucial for replenishing soil moisture needed for winter crops.

In its April forecast, the IMD predicted “above normal” rainfall for the June–September monsoon season, with an 89% likelihood of precipitation falling within the “normal to excess” range. Such rainfall levels are expected to support strong agricultural output for the second consecutive year. 

According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general IMD, “This year’s rainfall during the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to be 105% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with an average error margin of +/- 5.” 

Based on the positive monsoon forecast, the government has set an ambitious food grain production target of 354.6 million tonnes for the 2025–26 crop year (July–June).