Source: ITC Trade Map; *YoY growth: 2024 vs 2023.

On the import front, the picture is even more concerning. Africa’s role emerging as a dominant supplier due to its competitive pricing with imports surging US$ 29.0 million in 2024—a whooping 155% year-over-year increase, fueled primarily by low-cost producers like Kenya.

Assam’s dominant role in India’s tea production

Assam remains the powerhouse of India’s tea output, consistently accounting for about half of the nation’s total production. According to data from the Tea Board of India, Assam produced 649.84 million kg in 2024, representing 50.58% of the country’s overall 1,285 million kg. This marks a slight decline from 688.33 million kg (49.3%) in 2023, 688.7 million kg (50.4%) in 2022, and 667.73 million kg (49.7%) in 2021.

Small tea growers—those operating estates under 10 hectares without their own processing factories—play a pivotal role, contributing around 55% of Assam’s output. These grassroots producers sell their green leaves to “bought leaf factories,” but the current market slump has left them vulnerable, as factories pass on the pressure through slashed procurement prices.

The tea sector remains a vital pillar of Assam’s economy and forms the backbone of India’s overall tea production. Yet, the stability and benefits of this industry are now under serious threat. For workers and small growers, the impact is particularly harsh.

As Khumtai MLA Mrinal Saikia warns, in many parts of the state almost every household depends on tea in some way, and if the crisis continues unchecked, it could cause a severe breakdown of the local economy.

Factories and auctions in distress

Even large estates and factories are under strain. The Halmira Tea Estate, managed by the Newar Group, reports a ₹32 per kilogram drop in auction prices. Bought-leaf factories, which process green leaves from small growers, face worse conditions.

At the Malpani Tea Company in Golaghat, nearly one-third of production remains unsold, with about 1.2 lakh kilograms of tea lying in storage. Proprietor Amit Malpani admits that factories are selling tea at ₹20–30 below production cost, forcing them into daily losses.

The Guwahati Tea Auction Centre provides another indication of this oversupply. In 2025, producers brought 9 million kilograms of made tea to the auction, compared to just 5 million kilograms the previous year. While more was sold through the center, the quantity of unsold stock also rose significantly, showing that supply far outstripped demand despite a stable number of buyers.

Looking ahead: calls for intervention

Assam’s tea industry today stands at a decisive crossroads. The combination of falling domestic prices, mounting unsold inventories, and a surge in cheaper imports from Africa has created an unprecedented crisis. Unless urgent corrective measures are taken, Assam risks losing not only a key pillar of its economy but also its global reputation as the land of world-class tea. What was once a source of pride and prosperity has now become a struggle for mere survival.

To avert this decline, bold interventions are needed. Stricter regulation of imports must be enforced to protect the authenticity of Assam tea and prevent dilution through mislabeling. Minimum support mechanisms for small growers are crucial to stabilizing incomes, while efforts to expand exports in Asia and Africa and to promote premium, organic, and specialty teas can help reposition India’s tea industry globally. The challenge is formidable, but with coordinated policy support and industry innovation, Assam can safeguard its legacy and continue to flourish as the home of one of the world’s most distinctive brews.

FAQs

1. Why are Assam tea prices falling so sharply in 2025?
   Prices are plummeting due to oversupply in auctions, weak demand, and a deluge of low-cost imports—especially from Kenya. Unsold volumes have soared to 36% in Guwahati and 26% in Kolkata, exacerbating the crisis.

2. How much have imports into India’s tea market increased recently?
   Tea imports have nearly doubled in 2024–25 compared to the previous year. Kenya’s exports to India surged by 45% in early 2025, and total imports reached around 50 million kg.

3. What impact are imports having on small tea growers in Assam?
   Small growers are being decimated; many are receiving just Rs 14–15 per kg for green leaves—well below production cost. The influx of cheaper foreign tea is pushing them to the brink of insolvency.

4. Are industry bodies calling for government intervention in Assam’s tea crisis?
   Yes. Associations like ITA and CISTA are demanding measures such as a Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP) for made tea, stricter import regulation, and the creation of a task force to safeguard Assam’s tea sector.

5. Is climate change worsening the challenges for Assam’s tea production?
   Absolutely. Heatwaves and droughts have severely reduced yields, disrupted key harvests like the prized “second flush,” and driven up production costs—all compounding the financial strain on growers.