Global recovery might dissatisfy expectations

Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, opines that global recovery is facing risks. These twin risks are regulatory strictness of China on its technology sector and higher savings of US’ consumers. He does not expect a global bust. He cautions that the general consensus on the robust boom might not be taking into account the risks that can lead to fading of the robust growth sooner.

In China, there is large crackdown on tech sector with tightened regulatory policy. The digital now is estimated ot be 40%of Chinese economy. The impact of crackdown on the economic growth is a matter of concern. Second risks is consumers of U.S. might save more than spending, following the patter of post Second world war.

He is less worked about the growth in the emerging markets. It is because the emerging markets new technologies are being adopted at a rapid pace with fall in cost. Furthermore, there has been a upward trend in the commodity cycle. Commenting on the outlook for India, he says India has been forced to reform due to the pandemic, referring it as a silver lining for Indian economy. India has been discussing the privatization and reforms for labour market.