India likely to get normal monsoon in 2025, say experts

Global weather models indicate that India is likely to receive a normal south-west monsoon (June-September) in 2025, aided by the absence of El Nino conditions. Experts suggest average to above-average rainfall, supporting crop prospects and water availability.

India is expected to receive a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon (June-September) this year, supported by the absence of El Nino conditions, according to a leading weather scientist. Citing global forecasts, Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, UK, told FE, “A blended forecast from UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts suggest average to above-average monsoon rainfall in India.”

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to release its first monsoon forecast soon. If these global predictions hold, it will mark the second straight year of normal monsoon rains in 2025, after below-normal precipitation recorded in 2023. The south-west monsoon contributes 70-75% of India’s annual rainfall, playing a crucial role in boosting crop prospects and replenishing water reservoirs.

Deoras noted that the forecast models suggest India could experience an overall normal monsoon. “The key supporting factor is the absence of any adverse impact from the El Nino Southern Oscillation on monsoon,” he said. However, he added that it is too early to predict whether the onset of monsoon over Kerala or its progression across the country would be timely or delayed, as other sub-seasonal weather factors could influence rainfall distribution.

Recently, IMD stated that there is a 75% chance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation transitioning to a ‘neutral’ phase during April 2025, likely sustaining through the year and enhancing prospects of a normal monsoon. “El Nino condition is ruled out during monsoon season this year,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD.

IMD also predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions during the season. In 2024, India received 8% above-normal rainfall, while the 2023 monsoon remained below-normal and patchy despite initial predictions of normal rains. Nearly half of India’s farmland relies on monsoon rains for kharif crops like paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, besides supporting rabi crop sowing through adequate soil moisture.