The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2027, India will become the leading country behind the growth of global oil demand, surpassing China.
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India to surpass China as the primary driver of global oil demand growth by 2027. This shift is projected to occur as consumption increases rapidly in developing countries while simultaneously contracting in developed nations, according to the International Energy Agency.
According to the medium-term forecast for 2022-2028, approximately 75% of the predicted rise in global oil demand will originate from Asia. The resurgence of China’s economy following its reopening will contribute to this trend, and it will be further reinforced by India, which is solidifying its position as the fastest-growing major economy worldwide.
Simultaneously, the forecasts indicate a significant deceleration in global oil demand growth in the near future due to soaring prices and apprehensions regarding the security of supply. These factors are expected to expedite the shift towards cleaner energy technologies as nations seek alternatives to traditional oil consumption.
Considering the current policy framework, the projected period of 2022-2028 anticipates a significant deceleration in the growth of global oil demand due to the progress of the energy transition.
Although a peak in oil demand is approaching, the continuous expansion of petrochemical feedstock and air travel results in an overall increase in consumption throughout the forecast period. It is estimated that global oil demand will reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2028, indicating a rise of 5.9 mb/d compared to levels observed in 2022.
During the meeting in the G20 meeting held in Delhi, Mr. Hardeep Puri, the oil minister, highlighted that India is projected to contribute approximately 25% of the global energy demand between 2020 and 2024.
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