India’s sugar production is projected to rebound in the 2025-26 season, crossing 29.5 MT, supported by better sugarcane planting and favorable weather conditions, according to ISMA. While output has hit a five-year low this season, adequate carryover stocks and an above-normal monsoon forecast are expected to aid recovery. Ethanol diversion and controlled exports will continue to influence overall supply dynamics.
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India’s sugar sector is poised for a significant recovery in the 2025-26 season (October-September), with production expected to rebound from a projected five-year low of 29.5 million tonnes (MT) in the ongoing 2024-25 cycle. Industry stakeholders are optimistic that improved sugarcane planting and favorable weather conditions will drive a notable revival in output, ensuring adequate supply for both domestic consumption and ethanol production.
“Sugarcane planting has improved in key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, supported by favorable weather and last year’s monsoon, which enhanced planting activity,” said Deepak Ballani, Director General of the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA). With the Indian Meteorological Department forecasting an ‘above-normal’ southwest monsoon in 2025, prospects for robust sugarcane growth have significantly brightened. This also paves the way for an on-time start to the crushing season in October 2025.
Although production in the current 2024-25 season is projected to fall by around 7% year-on-year—largely due to poor monsoon rainfall in 2023 and red-rot disease in parts of Uttar Pradesh—industry officials remain confident of an adequate supply buffer. ISMA estimates that around 5.2–5.3 MT of sugar will be carried forward as opening stock on October 1, 2025. This will be sufficient to meet domestic demand for the initial two months of the upcoming season.
The 2024-25 sugar season began with an opening stock of 8 MT on October 1, 2024. With the main crushing season now concluded, 534 mills across key producing states have ceased operations, while Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to commence a special crushing cycle between June and July 2025.
Ballani noted that ISMA will release preliminary sugar production estimates for the 2025-26 season by July or August, based on satellite imagery and field surveys conducted in June. These early indicators will help assess sugarcane acreage and overall crop health.
In the current season, sugar production net of ethanol diversion is projected to be 29.5 MT. An additional 3.3–3.4 MT of sugar is expected to be diverted for ethanol production, a sharp increase from 2.15 MT in 2023-24. This marks a growing alignment of the sugar industry with the government’s biofuel blending targets.
India’s domestic sugar consumption is estimated at 28 MT in 2024-25, with exports projected around 0.9 MT. While exports were curbed in the 2023-24 season, the government permitted one MT of exports in January 2025, after assessing domestic availability and diversion toward ethanol.
In a move to support farmers, the government earlier this month approved a 4% increase in the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of sugarcane to ₹355 per quintal for the 2025-26 season. This decision is expected to further incentivize cane cultivation and bolster overall production.
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