Key Highlights
- India’s Total Fertility Rate declined from 2.1 to 1.9 births per woman.
- The latest figures come from the 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report.
- Most Indian states now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Only six states remain above the replacement fertility benchmark.
- Delhi recorded the country’s lowest fertility rate at 1.2 births per woman.
- Elon Musk highlighted the trend, noting India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement levels.
- Experts warn prolonged low fertility could contribute to population ageing and workforce challenges in the future.
India’s Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level as Demographic Transition Accelerates
New Delhi, June 7, 2026: India has entered a significant new phase in its demographic evolution, with the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declining below the replacement level for the first time in recent history. According to the latest 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, India’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, down from 2.1 previously, signaling a major shift in population growth patterns.
The development has attracted international attention, including comments from entrepreneur Elon Musk, who highlighted the data on social media and noted that India’s birth rate has now moved below replacement levels. Musk also pointed out that fertility rates among highly educated sections of the population had fallen below replacement levels several years ago.
Understanding the Replacement Level
Demographers generally consider a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman as the replacement level required for a population to maintain its size across generations, assuming no significant migration. When fertility remains below this threshold over an extended period, population growth gradually slows and may eventually reverse.
India’s decline to a TFR of 1.9 places it alongside a growing number of countries experiencing lower birth rates due to urbanization, rising education levels, increased workforce participation among women, delayed marriages, and changing family preferences.
While fertility rates have been declining steadily over the past few decades, the latest figures indicate that the demographic transition is now firmly established across most parts of the country.
Most States Below the Benchmark
According to the SRS report, only six states continue to maintain fertility rates above the replacement level. These include:
- Bihar
- Uttar Pradesh
- Madhya Pradesh
- Rajasthan
- Chhattisgarh
- Jharkhand
Most other states have already moved below the replacement threshold. Among them, Delhi recorded the country’s lowest fertility rate at just 1.2 births per woman, reflecting trends commonly seen in highly urbanized regions.
Experts note that fertility declines are often accompanied by improvements in healthcare access, educational attainment, family planning awareness, and economic development.
Population Still Growing Despite Lower Birth Rates
Although fertility has dropped below replacement levels, India remains the world’s most populous country, with a population estimated at approximately 1.47 billion people. The country surpassed China as the world’s largest population center in 2023.
Population experts emphasize that India’s overall population will continue to grow for some time due to demographic momentum. Large cohorts born during earlier periods of higher fertility are now entering their childbearing years, sustaining population growth even as average family sizes shrink.
UNFPA Report Highlights Similar Trend
The demographic transition has also been highlighted by the United Nations Population Fund in its 2025 State of World Population Report. The agency similarly estimated India’s fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman, reinforcing the findings of domestic population surveys.
According to population researchers, lower fertility can bring several economic and social advantages in the short to medium term, including improved resource allocation, higher female workforce participation, and increased investment in education and healthcare per child.
However, if fertility remains significantly below replacement levels for decades, countries can face challenges such as population ageing, shrinking labor forces, and rising pension and healthcare burdens.
Policy Implications for the Future
The latest fertility data is likely to intensify discussions around India’s long-term demographic strategy. Policymakers may need to balance the benefits of slower population growth with future concerns related to workforce availability, economic productivity, and social security systems.
For now, experts stress that India remains in a favorable demographic position compared to many advanced economies that are already experiencing population decline. Nevertheless, the drop in fertility to 1.9 marks a historic milestone and signals that the country’s demographic landscape is changing faster than many had anticipated.
As India continues its transition toward smaller family sizes and slower population growth, demographic trends are expected to play an increasingly important role in shaping economic planning, healthcare policy, education systems, and labor market strategies over the coming decades.
