Goldman Sachs says AI will reshape jobs while boosting productivity.
Key Highlights
- Up to 12% of non-farm jobs face AI substitution risk.
- Nearly half of workers are expected to benefit from AI.
- IT-enabled services face the highest automation risk.
- Healthcare and finance likely to see AI-driven productivity gains.
- Manufacturing remains less affected due to manual work.
- AI could raise annual labour productivity growth by 0.4%.
- Physical and skilled trade jobs remain comparatively resilient.
Generative artificial intelligence could transform India’s labour market over the coming decade, with up to 12% of the country’s non-agricultural workforce facing automation risks, according to a new Goldman Sachs report.
The report estimates that AI may perform between 9% and 17% of the tasks currently carried out by India’s non-farm workforce. While 8-12% of jobs could face substitution, around 42-48% are expected to be complemented by AI technologies, improving productivity rather than replacing workers.
Routine clerical roles, professional support services, and technical occupations are considered the most vulnerable to automation. In contrast, jobs requiring physical labour, craftsmanship, interpersonal interaction, and manual skills are expected to remain relatively secure.
Sector-wise, IT-enabled business process services, postal services, and telecommunications face greater exposure because of repetitive and standardized work. Meanwhile, healthcare, education, finance, and professional services are expected to benefit from AI-assisted diagnostics, analytics, and decision-making tools.
Goldman Sachs also projects that widespread AI adoption could increase India’s annual labour productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage points over the next decade, depending on the pace of technological adoption and task complexity.
The report views AI as a medium-term growth opportunity for India, provided businesses invest in workforce reskilling, digital infrastructure, and responsible AI deployment to maximize economic benefits.
