India is estimated to contribute nearly 6% to global trade growth in the next five years, according to the ‘DHL Trade Atlas 2025’ report, released recently in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business. It said that India will be ranked third globally, only behind China with 12% and the USA with 10%. The report also predicts strong trade growth in emerging Asian economies, including India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with South and Southeast Asia expected to outperform other regions.
India is expected to make substantial progress in global trade between 2024 and 2029, contributing around 6% to the world’s trade growth, according to a report by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business. The report, which gives an analysis of trade patterns for nearly 200 countries states that India will rank third in absolute trade expansion, following China at 12% and the United States at 10%. It states that India is expected to retain its third position on the scale dimension, a rank it achieved due to its trade growing at a much faster pace than other major economies. The country is also projected to advance from 32nd to 17th place on the speed dimension metric.
India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as per the report, are expected to be among the top 30 nations in both trade growth rate and absolute trade expansion.
Ken Lee, CEO – Asia Pacific, DHL Express noted, “With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market.”
India demonstrates robust trade growth
The report underscores India’s remarkable trade performance in recent years. In 2024, India was the 13th largest trading nation globally, with its trade volume growing at a compound annual rate of 5.2% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing global trade growth, which was only 2.0%. This rapid expansion reflects India’s strong macroeconomic growth and its increasing role in international trade. While China is typically seen as a more trade-oriented economy, India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio in 2023 was nearly on par with China’s. Moreover, India’s trade intensity, when considering both goods and services, was higher than China’s.
As per data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in March 2025, cumulative exports (including merchandise and services) for April-February 2024-25 are estimated at US$ 750.53 billion, marking a 6.24% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase from US$ 706.43 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. India’s total exports last month reached US$ 71.95 billion, reflecting a 3.16% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, imports declined by 11.33% to US$ 67.52 billion during the same period.
In February 2025, major contributors to merchandise export growth included electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, various ores and minerals (including processed minerals), readymade garments across all textiles, and coffee. Trade with key partners including the United States, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia remained robust. The trade deficit for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) declined to US$ 78.12 billion from US$ 121.6 billion in FY23.
RS Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express, said, “The Trade Atlas underlines India’s rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the East and West. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy’s general volatility.”
Global trade amid geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty
Global trade growth, according to the report, has continued to demonstrate resilience despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties. The countries driving the most absolute trade growth will be spread across Asia, Europe, and North America, while the fastest-growing trade economies will also include several African and Latin American nations. Among major world regions, South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and ASEAN countries are forecasted to experience the highest trade volume growth, with annual rates between 5% and 6%. Other regions are expected to grow at rates between 2% and 4%.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, has emphasized the resilience of global trade despite recent disruptions, a trend expected to continue even as the United States implements tariff increases. The report remained optimistic about global trade, noting that while the U.S. is shifting toward more restrictive policies, most other nations still see trade as a crucial economic driver. Additionally, U.S. trade barriers could strengthen economic ties among other countries.
Steven Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, stated, “While the US could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
The report suggested that many of former President Trump’s proposed tariff measures might be revised or delayed to avoid spikes in domestic inflation. While the U.S. plays a significant role in global trade—accounting for 13% of world imports and 9% of exports—its influence, though substantial, is not enough to single-handedly dictate the future of global commerce.
