Favorable weather improves chances of a strong wheat harvest

The prospects for a strong wheat harvest this rabi season look promising, with officials and traders expressing optimism, provided favorable weather conditions continue over the next four to six weeks. Experts believe that the current crop conditions are highly conducive to increased wheat output, which is expected to ease domestic supply concerns.

Ratan Tiwari, director of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research in Karnal, part of the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR), emphasized that recent rains and cooler temperatures have supported improved vegetative growth and tillering. This has led to an increased number of grain-bearing heads. “Favorable weather conditions are supporting the growth and tillering of wheat,” Tiwari noted, adding that there have been no reports of harmful yellow or brown rusts affecting the crop.

Wheat sowing this year has also increased slightly, with the area under cultivation rising to 32 million hectares (Mha), compared to 31.56 Mha in the previous year, and higher than the average of the last five years. This increased sowing, combined with favorable weather, raises hopes for a higher yield than last year.

The past few years have seen wheat production negatively impacted by excessive heat and unseasonal rains, particularly in March, which affected crop quality and yields. However, with improved weather patterns this season, the outlook appears more optimistic.

Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, noted that while the current period is a “lean” phase in terms of wheat supply, millers have adequate stocks. “Given the encouraging crop conditions, we expect wheat output to surpass last year’s figures,” Chitlangia said. He also projected that the mandi prices of wheat, currently around Rs 3100 per quintal in Delhi, will likely decrease once the new crop begins to arrive in the market in the next six weeks.

The decline in mandi prices could be further influenced by regional announcements in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where state governments have declared a bonus of Rs 125 per quintal over the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2425 per quintal for the 2024-25 rabi marketing season.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat production for the 2023-24 crop year is estimated at 113.29 million tonnes (MT). The crop estimate for the 2024-25 year will be released next month. Currently, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) holds 17 MT of wheat stocks, well above the buffer requirement of 13.8 MT. Additionally, FCI has begun selling wheat through its open market sale scheme, having sold 0.9 MT to bulk buyers such as flour millers and processors via e-auctions. The government has allocated 2.5 MT of wheat for sale in the open market this fiscal year to curb price spikes.

With favorable weather, increased sowing, and stable government support, the outlook for this year’s wheat harvest remains positive, which will likely contribute to a more balanced supply in the domestic market.