According to a report released by Crisil on Tuesday, the average cost of preparing a home-cooked vegetarian thali dropped by 8% in June 2025 compared to the same month last year, mainly due to a significant decline in vegetable prices.
In a welcome development for Indian households, the cost of preparing a home-cooked vegetarian thali fell by 8% year-on-year in June 2025, according to the latest report by Crisil. The decrease in cost is primarily attributed to a sharp fall in vegetable prices across the country. Similarly, the non-vegetarian thali saw a 6% decline over the same period, aided by easing broiler chicken prices, which typically contribute nearly 50% of its cost.
The drop in thali prices offers temporary relief to consumers reeling from broader inflationary pressures. However, Crisil has also warned that this decline may be short-lived, as seasonal factors and supply disruptions caused by recent heavy monsoon rains are expected to push vegetable prices higher in the coming months.
What Led to the Decline?
The Crisil report reveals that tomato prices dropped sharply by 24% year-on-year, averaging Rs 32 per kg in June 2025, down from Rs 42 per kg during the same period last year. This fall is largely due to a high base effect, as tomato prices had surged in 2024 due to poor yields. Other key thali components also saw notable price corrections — potato prices fell by 20%, while onion prices declined by 27% on a year-on-year basis.
“The cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis declined on-year in June, driven by softening vegetable prices. Tomato prices, in particular, saw a sharp on-year decline,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Market Intelligence & Analytics.
The decline in broiler chicken prices, a major input for non-vegetarian thalis, further contributed to the cost reduction. Prices of broiler chicken fell by about 3% year-on-year in June, helping to ease the overall cost of meat-based home-cooked meals.
Month-on-Month Trends Signal Reversal
Despite the annual decline, a closer look at monthly trends reveals that thali prices actually increased in June 2025 compared to May. The cost of a vegetarian thali rose by 3% month-on-month, while a non-vegetarian thali became 4% more expensive. Crisil attributed this uptick to seasonal supply-side pressures and shifting price dynamics, which typically occur during the onset of monsoon.
Recent monsoon rains have also played a disruptive role. In Himachal Pradesh, heavy downpours damaged several harvest-ready vegetable crops, especially tomatoes. This has caused concern that prices will begin to rise again, reversing the current downward trend.
Caution Ahead: Vegetable Prices Set to Rise
Crisil cautioned that consumers should brace for rising thali costs in the coming months, as the agricultural supply chain begins to feel the impact of climatic and seasonal disruptions. “We expect thali costs to inch up sequentially as seasonal changes push up vegetable prices,” Sharma said.
Onion prices, in particular, are expected to climb moderately due to a lack of fresh arrivals in the market and the regulated release of stored rabi onion stock. Furthermore, weak summer sowing of tomatoes is likely to limit supply, pushing prices up once again.
These developments suggest that while consumers have temporarily benefited from lower thali costs, the relief may be short-lived. The interplay of monsoon conditions, sowing patterns, and storage availability will determine the trajectory of food prices in the second half of the year.
Tracking Thali Affordability
Crisil’s monthly thali index serves as a barometer of household food inflation, reflecting cost variations in real terms across India’s diverse regions — north, south, east, and west. The index considers prevailing market prices of ingredients such as cereals, pulses, vegetables, cooking oil, and spices to determine the average cost of preparing a meal at home.
For a country where food expenses form a significant part of the average household budget, especially among lower- and middle-income groups, these shifts in thali prices are highly consequential. Even modest fluctuations in key inputs like vegetables and meat can have a sizeable impact on monthly expenditures.
While the year-on-year figures for June 2025 suggest a positive trend for household food budgets, underlying signals point toward renewed price pressures. If vegetable prices continue to rise due to weak harvests, erratic monsoons, or supply chain issues, households may soon find themselves grappling with a new wave of food inflation.
As policymakers and market analysts closely watch rainfall distribution and crop sowing trends in the coming months, the affordability of a basic thali will remain a key indicator of food inflation and overall economic sentiment among India’s consumers.
