The Tariff coefficient: Adjusting India’s F&B export formula

As global trade equations shift, even a single variable—like tariffs—can significantly impact results. For India’s food and beverage (F&B) sector, the recent 25% tariff imposition by the United States isn’t just a policy change—it’s a coefficient with the power to reshape margins, disrupt growth trajectories, and reconfigure long-standing trade models.

With the US being India’s largest F&B export market, understanding the new dynamics is critical. This blog unpacks the data, analyzes the competitive landscape, and explores strategic recalibrations needed to ensure India remains a strong, adaptive player in the evolving US F&B import matrix. Dive in for a detailed breakdown of the numbers, sectors, and strategies that will define the next chapter of India–US trade relations.

FTP_tpci

India’s food and beverage exports to the United States have exhibited consistent growth, reaching US$ 5.55 billion in 2024, supported by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.04% over the past five years. This growth has been largely driven by strong performance in seafood, spices and value-added processed food products.

The India–US trade relationship continues to evolve, with the F&B sector emerging as a key area of both strategic cooperation and competition. In light of recent shifts in US tariff regimes, Indian exporters face a dual scenario of emerging opportunities and heightened competitive pressures in securing market access and expanding their share in the lucrative American market.

To remain competitive, India must realign its trade policies, strengthen supply chain efficiency, and actively explore bilateral or multilateral trade agreements. A nuanced understanding of these evolving trade dynamics will be critical to shaping an effective export strategy that ensures sustained and enhanced access to the US F&B market.

Overview of Indian F&B trade with the US

India’s food and beverage (F&B) exports to the US under HS Code 02–22 (excluding HS ’05 and ’06) have shown a generally positive trend, rising from US$ 4.3 billion in 2020 to US$ 5.6 billion in 2024 (5-year CAGR of 4.1%). This sustained growth reflects strong bilateral trade ties and India’s competitive edge in delivering quality goods. In fact, the US has been India’s largest F&B export market consistently.

However, the recent US tariff revisions  by 25% pose a major challenge. These developments could disrupt export momentum, squeeze profit margins, and reduce the price competitiveness of Indian products in the US market.

India F&B Exports to US

Major Indian F&B exports to the US

In the recent years, India’s food and beverage exports to the United States have shown a dynamic trend across various key product categories. Coffee exports have witnessed steady growth, reflecting rising demand for Indian-origin beans in the US market. Tea, too, underscoring its continued relevance in premium and specialty segments. Rice exports have remained robust, with consistent year-on-year expansion driven by basmati and non-basmati varieties.

The processed food and beverage segment, although witnessing some fluctuations, continues to hold a significant share in the export basket. Indian spices have maintained their stronghold, with an upward trajectory highlighting growing interest in ethnic and health-oriented culinary preferences. Meanwhile, seafood exports have sustained their position as the top contributor, supported by demand for shrimp and other marine products. This data underscores India’s sustained competitiveness in the US F&B market despite global uncertainties.

HS Code Product description 2022 2023 2024
0901 Coffee 9.1 15.0 16.4
0902 Tea 55.7 51.8 67.2
1006 Rice 271.0 333.4 386.5
1601 – 2209 Processed F&B 1322.9 1233.0 1373.4
0904 – 0910 Spices 1841.2 1818.1 2119.4
0301–0307 Sea Food 2002.6 1904.3 1976.4

Source: CATR, TPCI, Complied from ITC, Trade Map; US$ Million.

Product categories driving India’s F&B exports to the US

 In 2024, India’s food and beverage exports to the US demonstrated a balanced mix of raw and value-added products, though the export basket was notably led by a few dominant categories. Frozen shrimps and prawns emerged as the single largest contributor, accounting for 34%. This was followed by preserved shrimps in airtight containers with 8% and semi/wholly milled rice at 7%, which together added significant weight to the basket.

Vegetable saps and extracts, along with miscellaneous food preparations, further strengthened India’s position in the processed F&B segment. Despite these leading categories, a considerable portion—over 40%—of exports came from a diverse set of other F&B products.

Product code Product label Value in 2024 (US$ Million) Market Share
Total F&B 5546.7
‘030617 Frozen shrimps and prawns, even smoked, etc…. 1882.6 34%
‘160529 Shrimps and prawns, prepared or preserved, in airtight containers (excl. smoked) 435.2 8%
‘100630 Semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed 386.0 7%
‘130219 Vegetable saps and extracts 301.0 5%
‘210690 Food preparations, n.e.s. 199.2 4%
Others 2342.9 42%

Source: ITC Trade Map

Tariff structures: A comparative analysis and its impact on India

With the recent tariff hikes, Indian exporters will face a distinct competitive disadvantage in several F&B categories due to comparatively higher US tariff rates, especially with key competitors.

In the seafood and shrimp sector, Ecuador and Thailand benefit from lower duties, while in Basmati Rice, Pakistan enjoys favorable tariffs that will support its aggressive pricing strategies. Brazil holds an edge in coffee exports with significantly lower tariffs. Similarly, Vietnam and Indonesia pose strong competition in the spice trade, and in processed foods and beverages, Thailand and Vietnam again benefit from more advantageous duty structures—all of which can collectively erode India’s pricing power and market share in the US. Indian companies are increasingly pushed toward low-margin bulk commodity exports. This restricts opportunities for brand development, innovation, and long-term value creation.

Product  category Key competitors Competitors’ tariff rate & impact on India
Shrimp & Seafood Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand Thailand face 19%, Ecuador faces 15%, Vietnam 20%. Their lower tariffs make Indian shrimp costlier leading to market share loss.
Basmati Rice Pakistan Pakistan faces 19% tariffs and allowing it to undercut Indian basmati prices and capture market share in price‑sensitive segments.
Coffee Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia Brazil faces 10% & Vietnam face 20% giving them a price edge that reduces India’s competitiveness in mass‑market coffee exports.
Spices Vietnam (pepper), Indonesia (nutmeg) Vietnam face 20% tariffs, Indonesia 19%, Tariff issues raise Indian spice costs more than competitors.
Tea Sri Lanka Sri Lanka face 20% tariffs, This narrows India’s price competitiveness affecting large-volume contracts.
Processed Foods & Beverages Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico Thailand faces 19% & Vietnam 20%. Indian exporters have to focus on low-margin bulk products.

Source: CATR, TPCI.

Industry perspective for the US tariff

 The recent imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian exports by the United States has triggered widespread concern across the Indian export sector. Industry stakeholders report a noticeable decline in business volumes with existing buyers, many of whom appear to be adopting a wait-and-watch approach to gauge the long-term impact on consumer demand. It has significantly reduced their competitiveness, particularly in markets where US domestic producers or tariff-exempt countries dominate.

Exporters indicate that absorbing the cost to maintain market share is proving unsustainable, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises. Import-dependent firms are being forced to raise retail prices, risking consumer shift to more affordable alternatives. Simultaneously, new buyers are seeking longer credit lines, which poses financial risks to Indian exporters, while reliable long-standing clients are scaling back orders.

Some exporters have also observed heightened scrutiny from US regulators, with the FDA requesting more detailed documentation than in the past. Industry experts caution that for businesses heavily reliant on the US market, this shift is not just a short-term setback but a structural challenge that may require realignment of trade strategies, including pivoting towards the EU, GCC, or ASEAN regions.

Overall, while it is early to assess the full extent of the disruption, current signals point to payment delays, market instability, and mounting compliance pressures.

Conclusion: Toward a resilient export strategy

 As the United States recalibrates its tariff policies and trade alliances, India must adopt a proactive stance to safeguard and strengthen its position in the F&B sector. With coordinated efforts from government bodies, export councils, and private players, India can turn the current tariff challenge into a strategic opportunity to reposition itself as a premium, reliable, and sustainable F&B partner to the US market. This calls for a dual approach—diplomatic engagement to pursue tariff parity and preferential access, and domestic policy reforms to enhance competitiveness, compliance, and branding.

India must align its food safety standards with those of the US to reduce technical barriers to trade. Exporters should also diversify their product portfolios toward high-margin, value-added segments such as organic, health-focused, and ready-to-eat offerings, which are gaining traction among US consumers. Moreover, sustained participation in global food trade exhibitions, strategic collaborations with US-based importers can further enhance visibility and trust. By embracing innovation and fostering a globally aligned export ecosystem, India can secure a long-term, value-driven presence in the F&B market.

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