Race to 600 GW: Can India power its future without fossil fuels?

India is facing a growing energy demand challenge, driven by rapid consumption and rising temperatures. To meet this surge sustainably and affordably, the country must scale up its non-fossil-fuel energy capacity to 600 GW by 2030, according to a new report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). The report highlights the economic, environmental, and social benefits of a high renewable energy pathway while warning of potential power shortages if targets fall short.

India must significantly ramp up its non-fossil-fuel energy capacity to 600 GW by 2030 to meet rising electricity demand reliably and affordably, according to a new report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). This target would include an estimated 377 GW of solar power, 148 GW of wind, 62 GW of hydropower, and 20 GW of nuclear energy.

The report highlights that falling short of this goal could leave portions of power demand unmet. If India only achieves 400 GW of non-fossil capacity, around 0.26% of electricity demand may go unfulfilled, prompting the need for an additional 10 GW of coal-based power and significant transmission infrastructure upgrades. Even reaching 500 GW would not eliminate shortages, about 0.32% of demand would still remain unserved, requiring further coal investments.

The urgency is amplified by the prospect of higher-than-expected demand growth. If electricity demand rises at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, as opposed to the projected 5.8%, then existing and planned generation capacity will fall short. In this scenario, India would face increasing strain on its power systems, and fossil-fuel-based solutions would become necessary to bridge the gap.

CEEW’s analysis recommends the 600 GW renewable energy pathway as the most economically viable option. This strategy would reduce the cost of electricity by 6 to 18 paise per unit, potentially saving between ₹13,000 crore and ₹42,400 crore by 2030. In addition to economic benefits, this transition could create 53,000 to 100,000 additional jobs and slash carbon emissions and air pollutants by 13% to 23%, making it a socially and environmentally beneficial move.

Meanwhile, India’s energy needs continue to surge. Unseasonably high temperatures in February 2025 drove peak solar-hour demand to 238 GW, surpassing projections and last year’s peak of 222 GW. Electricity consumption in the month rose 6% year-on-year to 79.3 billion units. Government estimates suggest that March could see peak solar-hour demand rise further to 240 GW, while non-solar hours could reach 223.1 GW.

However, electricity generation is not keeping pace with demand. In 2024, power production rose only 5.8%, its slowest rate since the pandemic—reaching 1,824.13 billion kWh. This lag reflects a broader economic slowdown, with India’s GDP growth hitting a two-year low in the second quarter of 2024. As power consumption grows amid sluggish generation, scaling up renewable energy becomes not just necessary, but urgent, to meet the country’s future energy needs sustainably.