India’s fuel exports surge: What it means for global markets

Indian refiners are scaling up petroleum exports to their highest levels in years, supported by expanded crude processing capacity and higher ethanol blending, which has freed up supplies for overseas markets. Exports rose from US$ 4.20 billion in August 2024 to US$ 4.48 billion in August 2025, with gasoline shipments projected to hit record highs of nearly 400,000 bpd. Gasoil exports are also expected to reach a four-year peak, helping Europe meet winter demand.

Crude oil prices_TPCI

Indian refiners are ramping up petroleum exports to their highest levels in years, according to Reuters. The surge in exports is being driven by expanded crude processing capacity and higher ethanol blending in the domestic market, which has freed up additional fuel for overseas shipments. India’s petroleum product exports have also shown a clear year-on-year rise, climbing from US$ 4,204.86 million in August 2024 to US$ 4,479.67 million in August 2025, reflecting the growing scale of outbound fuel trade.

Exports of petroleum products_tpci

Indian petroleum companies, which secure about one-third of their crude oil from Russia, are increasing refining runs and channeling surplus barrels to global markets. Reuters notes that this export growth is expected to help Europe meet its winter heating oil demand while also boosting Indian refining margins. Refiners had shifted to discounted Russian crude following sanctions imposed by Europe and the U.S. after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, the U.S. has accused India of profiteering by purchasing cheaper Russian oil and reselling refined fuels at elevated prices, sparking trade frictions between the two nations. India, in response, has asserted that its imports have played a role in stabilising global markets.

For 2025, India’s total crude processing is projected to rise by 130,000 to 160,000 barrels per day, reaching approximately 5.51 million bpd, with gasoline exports expected to touch a record high of nearly 400,000 bpd, as per consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

A refining industry source quoted by Reuters explained that exports are increasing due to weaker domestic demand during the monsoon season and fewer scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Data provider Kpler has placed India’s 2025 gasoline exports at 387,000 bpd, largely directed toward Asian markets. As per Woodmac analyst Priti Mehta, The rising share of ethanol blending in domestic gasoline consumption has supported the growth of gasoline exports.

The world’s second-largest crude importer and consumer has increased ethanol blending in gasoline to 20 per cent this year, up from 12 per cent in 2023. Refiners, including Reliance Industries and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, are scaling up exports to capitalise on robust Asian gasoline margins, which have surged 51% since January to approximately US$ 11–US$ 12 a barrel.

On the gasoil front, India’s exports are anticipated to reach a four-year high in 2025, with most volumes headed to Europe to cover winter heating needs, Reuters reported. The increase comes amid expectations of a tighter global supply in the fourth quarter due to significant refinery maintenance activities in both Europe and the Middle East.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts India’s 2025 gasoil exports at 610,000–630,000 bpd, while Kpler’s estimate stands at 560,000 bpd.


Read more

US Tariff on Indian Imports Doubled: Trade Tensions Escalate Over Russian Oil

Shifting tides: Global oil faces surplus amid slowing demand

From waste to watts: Why bio-energy could spark the next energy revolution in India


FAQs

1. Why are India’s petroleum exports increasing?
India is exporting more fuel due to higher crude processing capacity, greater ethanol blending in domestic gasoline (which frees up supplies), and strong overseas demand, especially from Asia and Europe.

2. How much have India’s petroleum exports grown?
India’s petroleum exports rose from US$ 4.20 billion in August 2024 to US$ 4.48 billion in August 2025, marking a clear year-on-year increase.

3. What role does ethanol blending play in boosting exports?
India has increased ethanol blending in gasoline to 20% in 2025, up from 12% in 2023. This reduces the need for gasoline domestically, leaving more available for exports.

4. Which fuels are leading India’s export growth?
Gasoline exports are projected to hit record highs of nearly 400,000 barrels per day, while gasoil (diesel) exports are expected to reach their highest levels in four years at 610,000–630,000 barrels per day.

5. Where are India’s fuel exports going?
Most gasoline shipments are being directed to Asian markets, while gasoil exports are largely headed to Europe to help meet winter heating demand.

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