Quick commerce drives next growth
Key Highlights
- India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow from USD 125 billion in 2024 to USD 345 billion by 2030.
- The sector is expected to expand at a CAGR of 18.4 per cent through 2030.
- Quick commerce is estimated to reach USD 65–70 billion by 2030.
- Dark stores are projected to increase from 2,525 in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030.
- AI and machine learning could improve retail productivity by 35–37 per cent by 2030.
New Delhi, September 2 — India’s e-commerce sector is projected to nearly triple to USD 345 billion by 2030 from USD 125 billion in 2024, driven by the rapid expansion of quick commerce and increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a report released on Wednesday.
Research consultancy Infisum, in its report titled ‘Smart Growth in a Fast Market’, expects the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4 per cent through 2030.
Quick commerce has emerged as the fastest-growing segment of India’s e-commerce ecosystem. The segment is estimated to reach USD 65–70 billion by 2030 and is expected to contribute 45–50 per cent of incremental e-retail growth over the next five years.
The expansion of rapid-delivery services is also expected to drive a sharp increase in dark-store infrastructure. The country’s dark-store network is projected to nearly triple from 2,525 locations in 2025 to approximately 7,500 by 2030.
Blinkit currently leads the competitive quick-commerce market with a 44 per cent share and processed 900 million orders in FY26. Zepto follows with a 25 per cent market share, while Swiggy Instamart holds 20 per cent.
Consumer demographics are also expected to play a major role in the sector’s expansion. Gen Z already accounts for nearly one-third of online shoppers and is expected to become India’s largest digital spending cohort by 2030.
The growth of online commerce is increasingly extending beyond metropolitan centres. Around 66 per cent of new direct-to-consumer (D2C) orders now originate from Tier II and Tier III cities, highlighting the increasing importance of smaller markets.
By the end of the decade, e-commerce is expected to account for 10–12 per cent of India’s total retail spending and contribute 2.5 per cent to national GDP. The sector is projected to serve around 420–440 million online shoppers.
Technology is expected to remain a major driver of this transformation. AI and machine learning are projected to improve retail productivity by 35–37 per cent by 2030. Technologies including conversational commerce, AI-powered shopping assistants and virtual try-ons are changing consumer discovery and purchasing behaviour.
The report indicates that quick-commerce expansion, growing digital adoption in smaller cities and AI-led retail innovation will remain central to India’s e-commerce growth over the coming years.
