Shift to the 2022–23 base year has revised historical GDP estimates, prompting debate over how India’s latest 7.8% growth figure should be interpreted
New Delhi: India’s 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter of FY2026–27 has brought renewed attention to how economic growth is calculated after the country shifted its GDP base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23.
The debate emerged after former Finance Secretary S.S. Garg questioned why the estimate for the first quarter of FY2025–26 was lower under the revised series. Former Chief Statistician of India T. C. A. Ananth, however, has said such changes are an expected consequence of rebasing GDP and recalculating earlier periods using updated methodology.
The first quarter of FY2026–27 is the first quarterly GDP estimate prepared using 2022–23 as the base year. To maintain a like-for-like comparison, estimates for previous periods also need to be recalculated using the new framework.
Why Historical GDP Numbers Changed
Under the previous 2011–12 base, GDP for Q1 FY2025–26 was estimated at approximately ₹86.1 lakh crore. Under the 2022–23 series, the corresponding estimate is around ₹80 lakh crore. Similarly, FY2025–26 GDP, previously estimated at approximately ₹357 lakh crore, stands at around ₹345 lakh crore under the revised series.
Ananth has pointed out that GDP estimates covering FY2022–23 through FY2025–26 were recalculated following the adoption of the new base year. The revised Q1 FY2025–26 figure therefore becomes the comparable base for calculating year-on-year growth in Q1 FY2026–27.
Economist and National Institute of Public Finance and Policy professor Pinaki Chakraborty has also said changes in previous-year estimates are a normal feature of GDP rebasing and have occurred during earlier revisions.
New Data Sources Enter Calculation
Changing the base year is intended to better reflect changes in the structure of the economy as industries, consumption patterns and available datasets evolve.
The revised methodology also changes some underlying data sources. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, regular statutory surveys will improve coverage of smaller enterprises and household businesses, replacing some estimates previously dependent on less frequent surveys.
Saurabh Garg, Secretary at MoSPI, has explained that quarterly year-on-year GDP comparisons are made at constant prices. When the base year changes, the corresponding quarter of the previous year must therefore also be recalculated using the new base.
India estimates GDP broadly through production and expenditure approaches. While both should theoretically produce the same result, statistical differences can arise because some expenditure-side information may be incomplete or available with a lag.
The current debate therefore centres on interpretation. A lower historical estimate resulting from a new base year does not, on its own, establish that earlier GDP numbers were changed specifically to increase the latest growth rate; the comparison must be understood within the broader rebasing of the historical series.
