Rooftop solar capacity could expand sharply from the current 17 GW, supported by PM Surya Ghar, falling system costs and growing residential demand.
Highlights
- India’s rooftop solar market could expand nearly eightfold to 132 GW from the current 17 GW.
- ISMA projects 9–15 GW of annual rooftop installations between 2026 and 2030.
- PM Surya Ghar had covered 5.46 million households by August, according to JMK Research data cited in the report.
- Monthly residential additions fell 11.6% to 1,407.32 MW in August, from 1,592 MW in July.
New Delhi: India’s rooftop solar market has the potential to grow nearly eightfold to 132 GW from the current 17 GW, driven by residential demand, government support and declining solar technology costs, according to the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
ISMA has projected annual rooftop solar installations of around 9–15 GW between 2026 and 2030. The industry body expects the next phase of the PM Surya Ghar programme to support further expansion of the residential solar market.
The projection comes as rooftop solar adoption continues to expand across Indian households. According to JMK Research data cited in the report, PM Surya Ghar had covered around 5.46 million households by August.
However, monthly residential solar additions have recently slowed. Installations declined 11.6% to 1,407.32 MW in August from 1,592 MW in July. Despite this moderation, the industry expects installation activity to gather momentum as the programme approaches its deadline.
ISMA said the government’s push to strengthen the domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem, along with falling costs of solar cells, modules, inverters and balance-of-system components, is supporting the market’s expansion.
The association’s projections are based on residential electricity consumption, household characteristics and distribution-related statistics. It said rising awareness and greater availability of rooftop solar systems could help broaden adoption across the country.
State-level data cited in the report showed strong residential additions in several markets, including Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
The Centre has set a target of reaching 7.5 million households by December 2026 before moving towards the scheme’s overall goal of 10 million households. Under the programme, eligible households can receive central financial assistance of up to ₹78,000 for rooftop solar installations of 3 kW or above.
ISMA believes maintaining market continuity and improving visibility for consumers and industry stakeholders will be important for sustaining growth as India accelerates residential rooftop solar adoption.
