India’s external trade signals cautious optimism amid global volatility

India’s external trade performance for April-May 2025 reflects a favorable trend amidst the fluctuations of the global economic landscape. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, total exports — comprising both merchandise and services — recorded a healthy growth of 5.7%, reaching US$ 142.4 billion in April-May 2025. This expansion underscores India’s resilience, particularly driven by robust services exports and strong sectoral growth in certain merchandise categories.

At the same time, total imports increased by 6.5% to US$ 159.6 billion in April-May 2025, reflecting robust domestic demand. This changing trade landscape emphasizes the necessity for deeper integration into global value chains, focused industrial policies, and improved trade facilitation measures to maintain long-term export competitiveness.

FTP_tpci

The Ministry of Commerce & Industry released India’s external trade statistics for April-May 2025, presenting a optimistic outlook for the nation’s export and import performance amidst the evolving global economic landscape.

Overall Trade Performance

Cumulative exports (merchandise and services combined) during April-May 2025 is estimated at US$ 142.4 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.7% compared to US$ 134.7 billion during April-May 2024 where as in May 2025, India’s total exports (merchandise and services) stood at US$ 71.1 billion, reflecting a 2.7% increase from US$ 69.2 billion in May 2024.

Cumulative imports (merchandise and services combined)  also witnessed a notable increase of 6.5%, amounting to US$ 159.6 billion, up from US$ 149.8 billion during the same period last year meanwhile, total imports (merchandise and services) for May 2025 is estimated at US$ 77.75 billion, showing a marginal decline of (-) 1.02% compared to US$ 78.55 billion in May 2024.

India's overall trade May 2025_TPCI

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, figures in US$ billion

Merchandise exports for April-May 2025 stood at US$ 77.2 billion, marking a 3.1% growth over US$ 74.89 billion in April-May 2024. Merchandise exports fell slightly by 2.2%, totaling US$ 38.7 billion in May 2025 vs. US$ 39.6 billion in May 2024.

India’s merchandise export growth fell slightly by 2.2%, totaling US$ 38.7 billion in May 2025. This demonstrates global challenges such as declining global demand, adjustments in supply chains, and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the expanding merchandise trade deficit continues to represent a structural weakness.

Sectors that contributed significantly to merchandise export growth included, Electronic Goods (54.1%), Marine Products (26.8%), Tobacco (22.7%), Meat, Dairy & Poultry Products (16.9%), Organic & Inorganic Chemicals (16%), Mica, Coal & Other Ores, Minerals Including Processed Minerals (11.6%), RMG of All Textiles (11.4%), Spices (11.2%), Other Cereals (9.6%), Jute Mfg. Including Floor Covering (9.5%), Coffee (8.2%), Drugs & Pharmaceuticals (7.4%), Leather & Leather Products (6.9%), Fruits & Vegetables (2.6%), Tea (2.3%), Ceramic Products & Glassware (2.3%) and Carpets (1%) exhibited positive growth during May 2025 over the corresponding month of last year May 2024.

The remarkable increase in electronic goods exports signifies the initial benefits of India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and the rising global demand for varied electronic manufacturing.

India's merchandise export May 2025_TPCI

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

Merchandise imports climbed to US$ 125.5 billion during April-May 2025, an 8.1% rise from US$ 116.2 billion in April-May 2024, leading to a widened merchandise trade deficit of US$ 48.3 billion. Merchandise imports decreased to US$ 60.6 billion in May 2025 from US$ 61.7 billion in May 2024.

Imports of Pulses (-51.9%), Transport Equipment (-28.2%), Fertilisers, Crude & Manufactured (– 26.6%), Petroleum, Crude & Products (-26.1%), Newsprint (-20.6%), Coal, Coke & Briquettes, etc. (-19.4%), Pearls, Precious & Semi-Precious Stones (-18.5%), Metaliferrous Ores & Other Minerals (-13.5%), Gold (-12.6%), Vegetable Oil (-3.6%) exhibited negative yoy growth during May 2025.

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India

Services trade continued to be robust. The estimated value of services exports for April-May 2025 was US$ 65.2 billion, up by 9.1% from US$ 59.8 billion in April-May 2024. Services imports stood at US$ 34.1 billion in April-May 2025, slightly higher than US$ 33.6 billion last year, resulting in a services trade surplus of US$ 31.2 billion for April-May 2025.

Services exports grew strongly for the month of May 2025, to US$ 32.4 billion as compared to US$ 29.6 billion in May 2024, registering a Y-O-Y growth of 9.3%. Imports rose slightly to US$ 17.14 billion in May 2025 from US$ 16.9 billion in May 2024, maintaining a healthy services surplus.

The positive trade performance in services exports at 9.1% in April-May 2025 highlights the strategic importance of further policy support for export-oriented sectors, supply chain diversification, and deepening trade integration with key partners.

The increase in imports, especially in the non-petroleum and non-gems categories, demonstrates robust domestic demand.

From a policy standpoint, sustaining export momentum will require enhanced integration into global value chains, the execution of targeted industrial strategies to strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities, and the adoption of more effective trade facilitation frameworks. The coming weeks will be particularly crucial, as we monitor the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict, especially on energy prices. Moreover, the industry is looking forward to the first tranche of the India-US BTA and the possible signing of the India-EU FTA in the coming months.

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